Visitor value: how likely a visitor is to pay
Sumly estimates what a visitor is worth from the people on your own site who paid. Until enough of them have, it shows no estimate at all.
- Came from
Reddit
- Reading now
- /pricing
- Days visited
- 3
It starts from the people who paid you
Sumly takes everyone who visited the project’s site in the last 90 days. Then it finds the ones who paid, by the visitor id their checkout carried.
Payers divided by visitors is the project’s own rate. Every estimate on this project starts there.
One dot for every 20 visitors in the last 90 days.
Then it asks how often people like this visitor paid
For each trait Sumly compares a group with the whole project. People on desktop paid 1.2 times as often as everyone here. People on Safari paid less often, 0.8 times.
Device, system, browser, country, first source and days visited come together in one figure for this visitor. It moves the project’s rate up or down.
- DesktopDevice 1.2×
- macOSSystem 1.25×
- SafariBrowser 0.8×
- GermanyCountry 1.25×
- RedditFirst source 1.6×
- 3 daysDays visited 1.25×
And puts a price on that chance
The visitor’s chance to pay is the project’s rate times that figure. The estimated value is the chance times what this project’s payers paid on average.
The figures are worked out again every hour, so new payers and new kinds of traffic show up within the hour.
Two sales in a small country are not a trend
Say 10 people came from one small country and 2 of them paid. On their own that is 20%, thirteen times the project’s rate.
So Sumly counts a small group’s own rate for little and leans on the project’s rate instead. Those 10 people come out near the project, at about 5%. The bigger a group grows, the more its own payers count.
10 visitors from one small country, 2 paid
The thin line is the project’s 1.5%.
No figure until your own payers can back it
Many analytics tools put a value on every visitor from the first day. They multiply the whole site’s conversion rate by the average order. That is what an average visitor is worth, so every visitor gets the same figure.
Sumly shows nothing until the project has 5 payers tied to visits. From then on each visitor gets a figure from the people on your site who were like them.
- Desktop · Reddit · Germany€1.80
- Phone · Google · India€1.80
- Tablet · Direct · United States€1.80
1.5% × €120 for everyone.
- Desktop · Reddit · Germany€5.40
- Phone · Google · India€0.90
- Tablet · Direct · United States€1.62
Each from the project’s rate, moved by who they are.
Even past 5, a figure built on a handful of payers moves as new ones come in. Read it as a direction until there are more.
A figure, not a forecast
It is what people like this visitor paid on average. Most single visitors pay nothing.
Pass the visitor id to checkout
Only payers tied to a visit count. Leave the id out and the rate looks lower than it is.
Visitor value questions
Why does a visitor show no estimate?
The project has fewer than 5 payers tied to visits in the last 90 days, or the visitor is in an app rather than on your site. Below 5 payers the rate is mostly noise, so Sumly leaves the figure out.
Does Sumly use other sites' data?
No. Each project's estimate comes only from that project's visitors and payers. Nothing is pooled across customers.
Which payments count?
Payments whose checkout carried the visitor id: Stripe, Paddle, Polar and Creem through the checkout, and RevenueCat when your app sets the visitor id. Payments without it are still in your revenue, but not in the estimate.
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